Fireman Dan Joslin works with intensive care nurses in the intensive care unit at Queen Alexandra Hospital in Portsmouth, southern England.
ADRIAN DENNIS | AFP | Getty Images
LONDON – A recently discovered sub-variant of the Delta strain of Covid-19 now accounts for 10% of new cases in the UK – but scientists have said there is no need to panic.
Known as AY.4.2, there is some concern that it could be about 10% more transmissible than the original Delta strain, but so far there is insufficient evidence that it is.
The sub-variant – believed to have surfaced in the UK this summer – has two additional mutations affecting its spike protein, part of the virus structure used to infiltrate cells. Questions remain as to how or whether these mutations affect the speed of spread.
In the past 28 days, AY.4.2 accounted for around 10% of new Covid-19 cases, according to the public health consortium Cog-UK. This makes it the third most dominant version of Covid-19 in the UK for the last four weeks after the original Delta strain and another of its so-called sublines.
Despite its spike, public health officials in England have emphasized that AY.4.2 does not appear to cause any more serious illness or make existing vaccines less effective so far. And according to biologists from Northumbria University in England, the mutation has not caught on in several European countries and has “disappeared from the radar in Germany and Ireland”.
Christina Pagel, director of the Clinical Operational Research Unit at University College London, told CNBC over the phone that while the new sub-variant of Delta is definitely growing in the UK and elsewhere, it is not much of a concern.
“It looks like it has a carryover advantage of 12-18% over Delta, so this is not good news in that sense. It’ll make things a little more difficult, but it’s not a massive jump, ”said Pagel.
“Delta was about 60% more transferable compared to Alpha, doubling every week. This goes up a percent or two per week – it’s much, much slower. So in that sense, it’s not a major disaster like Delta. It will likely gradually replace Delta over the next several months, but there is no evidence that it is more resistant. [so] At the moment I wouldn’t panic about it. “
However, the appearance of the new mutation raised some concerns, Pagel said. If the new mutation got to countries that were further behind the UK in their vaccination programs, it would create additional problems, she added. It has also proven that the coronavirus is still mutating.
“There are many different subspecies of Delta, [but] This is the first subtype that actually seems to have an advantage over the other deltas, ”said Pagel. “And it just shows that there are more places where he can develop and develop. Some people have said Delta hit the sweet spot – look, it found another sweet spot. “
Pagel called for the reintroduction of some mitigation measures in the UK, which lifted almost all remaining Covid restrictions in July and now has one of the highest infection rates in the world.
“If you have a large number of cases, you will continue to have opportunities for mutation,” she said. “I don’t think it’s a coincidence [the new subvariant] has arrived in England, where we have had very high cases for a long time. “
Importance of vaccination
David Matthews, professor of virology at the University of Bristol, told CNBC on a phone call that while booster vaccinations and vaccinations for children could help slow down a potentially faster version of the virus, the UK needs to focus on the 10% of adults, they still refused a vaccine.
“Everyone, vaccinated or not, will one day get this virus,” warned Matthews. “So there is only one question to ask yourself: Are you going to hit this vaccine with your battle-trained or untrained immune system?”
He added, “What the Delta variant does, and what AY.4.2 will do, is simply to find the unvaccinated people faster. So if you are unvaccinated, the time it takes to find this virus will be shorter if the virus spreads faster . “
Variants “a fact of life”
Eyal Leshem, an infectious disease specialist at Sheba Medical Center who treats patients on the Israeli front, said he was not particularly concerned about AY.4.2.
“AY.4.2 has been around in the UK for a while and still does not account for more than 10% of cases,” he said. “Delta became completely the dominant variant within a few weeks of being placed on the market. This was not observed with AY.4.2.”
Leshem added that variants are “a fact of life” when it comes to highly infectious viruses.
“We are unlikely to be able to fully vaccinate the entire world population to prevent transmission with the aim of eliminating the virus.
“I don’t think new variants are an important consideration in deciding whether or not to fully open a country – I think the UK made the right choice [to reopen]. “
